Forecast Survey Instructions
In this study, you will be asked to predict the results of an experiment testing the effects of expressing anger in a professional environment. In the experiment, participants rate six characteristics of a target person after seeing their response to an incident at their work environment. The six characteristics are competence, warmth, being “out-of-control”, dominance, assertiveness and accorded status, and are rated on numeric scales. There are two experimental conditions. In the anger condition, the target person is depicted to respond with anger to the incident. In the ‘no-anger condition’ the target responds to the same incident neutrally or with sadness. The experiment uses a variety of scenarios for the incident, a variety of formats to depict the incident and the target’s response (e.g. video footage, audio, written scenarios), and a large number of participants (both female and male) to evaluate the target person. Each participant is randomized into a single scenario and then evaluates the target person along the six characteristics.
Your task
The experimental results we ask you to forecast are the effect sizes for showing anger, relative to the no-anger condition, for the six characteristics. We ask you separately for the effect sizes for male and female targets and male and female participants. Thus, in total we will ask you to make 24 predictions (effect sizes for 6 characteristics x 2 target genders x 2 participant genders). You will be asked to forecast the effect sizes as Cohen’s d.
Wikipedia provides the following description for effect sizes: “An effect size is a quantitative measure of the strength of a phenomenon. Examples of effect sizes are the correlation between two variables, the regression coefficient in a regression, the mean difference, or even the risk with which something happens, such as how many people survive after a heart attack for every one person that does not survive.
For each type of effect size, a larger absolute value always indicates a stronger effect. In the social sciences, a Cohen’s d of .20 is considered to be a small effect, .50 is considered to be a medium effect, and .80 is considered to be a large effect.”
In our study, a negative effect size means that the numerical rating of a characteristic of the target by the participant is decreased in the anger condition, compared to the no-anger condition. A positive effect size means that the numerical rating of the characteristic is increased in the anger condition, compared to the no-anger condition.
Your task
The experimental results we ask you to forecast are the effect sizes for showing anger, relative to the no-anger condition, for the six characteristics. We ask you separately for the effect sizes for male and female targets and male and female participants. Thus, in total we will ask you to make 24 predictions (effect sizes for 6 characteristics x 2 target genders x 2 participant genders). You will be asked to forecast the effect sizes as Cohen’s d.
Wikipedia provides the following description for effect sizes: “An effect size is a quantitative measure of the strength of a phenomenon. Examples of effect sizes are the correlation between two variables, the regression coefficient in a regression, the mean difference, or even the risk with which something happens, such as how many people survive after a heart attack for every one person that does not survive.
For each type of effect size, a larger absolute value always indicates a stronger effect. In the social sciences, a Cohen’s d of .20 is considered to be a small effect, .50 is considered to be a medium effect, and .80 is considered to be a large effect.”
In our study, a negative effect size means that the numerical rating of a characteristic of the target by the participant is decreased in the anger condition, compared to the no-anger condition. A positive effect size means that the numerical rating of the characteristic is increased in the anger condition, compared to the no-anger condition.
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